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Initially, Donald Trump seemed to take a resolute stance concerning Ukraine. After making threats of "serious consequences" in August if Vladimir Putin carried on blocking peace talks, the former president ultimately imposed substantial sanctions on the Russian biggest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move seriously hindered Putin's capability to support his aggression in Ukraine.

But, with his latest detailed peace proposal for Ukraine, which was drafted by both nations' officials lacking Ukraine's or European involvement, Trump has apparently gone back to his Russia-friendly approach.

Rewarding Aggression

Trump's initiative would essentially favor Putin for occupying Ukraine while placing Ukraine's democracy in peril. Although strong declarations that "The nation's autonomy will be upheld", much of the initiative in reality weaken that very autonomy. Seen as a Moscow's wish would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his corporate background, the former president persists to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a mere territorial dispute, like ceding Russia a portion of Ukraine's territory will please the president. But, Putin's invasion is not merely about dominating a damaged swath of industrial-devastated area in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's obvious desire to weaken it so it ceases to functions as an attractive model for the Russian people of the responsible government that his growing dictatorship withholds them.

Territorial Concessions

While maintaining in status the already divided Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's plan would force the nation to surrender all of Donetsk province. Beyond benefiting the Russian Federation with territory that its military have been failed to capture in more than a ten years of fighting, this concession would render Ukrainian military defenses dangerously weakened.

Donetsk is the site of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the entrenched defensive positions that constitute a key barrier to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military leave these fortifications, providing Russian forces a clear route to Kyiv if he later opt to restart the hostilities.

Military Restrictions

Furthermore, in a step that would enable renewed conflict simpler for the Russian military, the plan would mandate Ukraine to cut the scale of its military from their current 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a limit of six hundred thousand. Significantly, the initiative sets no such restrictions on Russia's military.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to depict the nation's legitimate leadership as radicals, Trump's plan asserts: "Any extremist ideology and activities must be rejected and banned." As if to emphasize this point, it demands that "The nation will hold elections in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, Trump imposes no requirement that the Russian leader risk his regime by allowing elections in Russia.

Protection Assurances

Certainly, the initiative has Russia promise not to "invade bordering nations" and to "enshrine in law its position of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet taking into account that Putin has broken similar accords in the history – for example the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government pledged to honor Ukraine's borders in exchange for surrendering its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a restoration of seized areas in eastern Ukraine to the government – for what reason should anyone trust this commitment now?

This explains Ukraine has been so determined on external protection assurances. Although the plan promises a "decisive joint defense action" in case Russia resume its invasion, and states that "Ukraine will receive reliable defense commitments", the details range from vague to concerning. The plan would not just prevent Ukraine accession to NATO but also prohibit alliance nations from deploying forces on Ukraine's soil, thus precluding the reassurance force, likely led by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to deter Russia from replenishing his diminished troops, rearming, and attacking again.

International Reaction

An additional side agreement apparently would provide the nation with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any later "serious, intentional, and continuous aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "would be considered as an assault endangering the peace and security of the allied countries." That suggests a armed reaction. However unlike a capable national defense – Ukraine's primary defense against future Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the side agreement would rely on the willingness of Western powers, like the US administration, to react with force to Russia's aggression, something they have {not