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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement receives the award. However, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or just the biggest upset.

But the current race is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions fading and recent underperformers rising in unison. Under an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this turbulent and fun season, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where his case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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