Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.
Major Obstacles in the Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avert any future leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
