Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
